Where's the Demo in Demographics?

Pastor Page (October 17, 2007)

We’ve been talking about demographics in the last couple of weeks. After Wednesday-night supper, John Sikes presented a graphical view of the Tuscaloosa demographic make-up and that of our neighborhood, and compared them to the demographics of Covenant Presbyterian Church. Not surprisingly, the demographic make-up of CPC looks little like that of our surrounding neighborhood; perhaps more surprising, given the way our neighborhood has changed in the past 57 years, is also that it looks little like that of Tuscaloosa as a whole. One figure that stands out is race—in our neighborhood, 55% of the population is white; in Tuscaloosa, that figure is slightly higher at 57%; at CPC, that figure is over 99%. This, of course, is a well-known issue, and certainly not unique to Covenant. Another figure that stands out is age: in our neighborhood, fully 48% of the population is under 25 years of age; at Covenant, only 7% of the membership is under 25. Although this issue is also well-known, and not unique to Covenant, it could have unfortunate consequences for our congregation sooner than anyone might imagine.

To see why that is, you have to look at the other end of the spectrum – if the smallest age class is the under 25s, what is the largest? John presented the answer graphically, as I did in last week’s newsletter article: the largest age-class at present is that of people over 65 years of age. In John’s graphs you can see the growth of this age-class from 20% in 1990 to 47% in 2006. In last weeks newsletter article—with perhaps a little too much hype¬—I called the situation a “recipe for disaster.” Let me explain why.

But first, a disclaimer—as we all know, the over 65s, the under 25s, and every age in between are valuable, beloved members of the CPC family. No one group bears the blame for any situation in which we might find ourselves—it’s the numbers, ma’am, nothing but the numbers. John drew a trend line over the graph, showing that if the current trend continues, CPC will be down to somewhere around 50 members by 2025. Unfortunately, several factors make that number optimistic. The primary one is that for a number of reasons, people in the age group of 65+ years leave the congregational rolls at a higher rate than others. Thus, because we have a growing percentage of folks in that age group, and because we aren’t adding many in that group—or in any other, for that matter—the current trend will accelerate, and we will reach a much-reduced congregation size a good deal sooner.

So. What can we do about it? Well, we could panic, running around like chickens with our heads cut off, expending much energy with very little results. Many churches try that, many of those fail. But your session, being very wise, has decided to undertake a time of study and reflection, so we can answer some fundamental questions about how we got here, and then design an intelligent way to become vital again. We’ve called that process the Seekers, and it is still in its first year; as we continue to learn new things about ourselves, we will begin to pass that along to the congregation, just as we did the demographics. Through prayer and hard work, we will revitalize our beloved congregation.